BILL Wermine -Fund Manager in Phillip Capital Management-My Stock Mentor
Bill Wermine has over 30 years experience in the financial industry. He has been a broker, analyst, commodity dealer, fund manager representative with Phillip Capital Management Sdn. Bhd. (PCM) and active trader. He specializes in swing trading and actively conducts workshops on swing trading. Bill has worked as a Share Broker, Futures Broker and trader for a number of firms both in the US and in Malaysia. Bill holds a BA in Communication from the University of Maryland. He is my good stock guru mentor together with our Chief Investment Officer, Mr Ang Kok Heng in PCM. He has written many books on stock trading namely several best sales in the bookstores today
1. Dividends Don't Lie
2. How to get Rich from swing trading
3. 48 tips, Millionaire’s Exit Strategies
( you can review his books and buy them at Book Planet is an online bookstore in Malaysia)
1. Dividends Don't Lie
2. How to get Rich from swing trading
3. 48 tips, Millionaire’s Exit Strategies
( you can review his books and buy them at Book Planet is an online bookstore in Malaysia)
Fund Manager Speaks (15 Sept 2013)
Dear Investors,
For the last 4 trading days, foreign funds have been returning to the KLCI according to Interpac Securities daily fund flows as posted in the Sun newspaper . In fact the KLCI has recovered 5.8 % from the last 2 months panic selling and 6.8 % drop. Never have I seen such pessimism, gloom and negative sentiment. Many cash rich fund managers are still sitting on their hands waiting for certainty.
Ken Fischer, the billionaire investor said waiting for certainty is one of the most expensive mistakes an investor can make. We never know all the facts and we get paid to take on risk. Who will pay you if there is no risk ? To get the most profits we must weigh the odds and anticipate rather than wait for the herd to make their play. There is comfort when joining a crowd but rarely does the crowd make money. It is better to be like a tiger who hunts alone and anticipates where will be his next meal. The tiger will stalk his prey and wait patiently for his chance to pounce. Ideally the prey will be old and lame . This puts the odds on the side of the tiger. We must be like the tiger when we invest.
Tiger running to catch his prey. As investors we must have the tiger mentality. The tiger takes risks but they are calculated. See how happy and fit is this tiger.
We sold nothing on the recent market break and in fact added some quality SGX/ KLSE dividend issues on the break. I just picked up the Monday edition of Star business and was pleased to see that 6 of our dividend shares recently declared dividends. This is real money that can never be taken back by the company and is a vote of confidence in the businesses we invest in. I run a small portfolio for my wife and relatives. Never do they ask me the price of JTI, Nestle or Gas Malaysia which are some of the shares we invest in. My wife will ask me when is the next dividend and how much ? This is money she can immediately enjoy. This is what she cares about the most. Next week there might be some volatility in the KLSE/ SGX as the result of tapering will be announced by the Bernenk.
I am not concerned. The businesses we invest in are financially strong. Have solid ROE. Have low debt. Honest management and products which are the basic necessities of life. Life goes on taper or not. I would however avoid interest rate sensitive stocks such as property developers, construction companies, REITs, insurance companies and especially companies with high debt to equity ratios and those who leverage their balance sheets. Keep calm and do not lose your objectivity
Dear Investors,
For the last 4 trading days, foreign funds have been returning to the KLCI according to Interpac Securities daily fund flows as posted in the Sun newspaper . In fact the KLCI has recovered 5.8 % from the last 2 months panic selling and 6.8 % drop. Never have I seen such pessimism, gloom and negative sentiment. Many cash rich fund managers are still sitting on their hands waiting for certainty.
Ken Fischer, the billionaire investor said waiting for certainty is one of the most expensive mistakes an investor can make. We never know all the facts and we get paid to take on risk. Who will pay you if there is no risk ? To get the most profits we must weigh the odds and anticipate rather than wait for the herd to make their play. There is comfort when joining a crowd but rarely does the crowd make money. It is better to be like a tiger who hunts alone and anticipates where will be his next meal. The tiger will stalk his prey and wait patiently for his chance to pounce. Ideally the prey will be old and lame . This puts the odds on the side of the tiger. We must be like the tiger when we invest.
Tiger running to catch his prey. As investors we must have the tiger mentality. The tiger takes risks but they are calculated. See how happy and fit is this tiger.
We sold nothing on the recent market break and in fact added some quality SGX/ KLSE dividend issues on the break. I just picked up the Monday edition of Star business and was pleased to see that 6 of our dividend shares recently declared dividends. This is real money that can never be taken back by the company and is a vote of confidence in the businesses we invest in. I run a small portfolio for my wife and relatives. Never do they ask me the price of JTI, Nestle or Gas Malaysia which are some of the shares we invest in. My wife will ask me when is the next dividend and how much ? This is money she can immediately enjoy. This is what she cares about the most. Next week there might be some volatility in the KLSE/ SGX as the result of tapering will be announced by the Bernenk.
I am not concerned. The businesses we invest in are financially strong. Have solid ROE. Have low debt. Honest management and products which are the basic necessities of life. Life goes on taper or not. I would however avoid interest rate sensitive stocks such as property developers, construction companies, REITs, insurance companies and especially companies with high debt to equity ratios and those who leverage their balance sheets. Keep calm and do not lose your objectivity
Fund Manager Speaks (07 Sept 2013)
Dear Investors,
We shared our market outlook with particular focus on the background and how this might effect our local market. Background issues include interest rates, currencies, China and Asian growth, QE in the US and and QE in most developed markets.
Interest rates are going up world wide as evidenced by rising yields in US Treasury bonds, UK Gilts, Australian and European bonds, Japanese bonds and the local MGS.
This is the result of world wide money printing by all the central banks. Investors are demanding higher yields for the risk of holding government bonds. The threat by the Bernenk to stop QE is causing increased stock market volatility, panic in many emerging stock markets/ currencies and slowing growth.
Should the US Fed remove QE stimulus expect , massive stock market drops and a US housing market collapse. It is like taking away heroin from a drug addict. There is a mid term election in the US in 2014. Politicians in order to keep their jobs will put pressure on the authorities to keep the stimulus game going. On Friday, the US labor dept released the monthly employment report. It will give the Bernenk cover to taper less. This report was horrible and should give the authorities an excuse to delay or minimize tapering.
Here are comments from David McAlvany on the report.
On Friday, a dismal US jobs report was released: 169,000 non-farm jobs were created versus 180,000 expected. The labor participation rate fell to a 35-year low of 63.2%, which allowed for a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate to 7.3% for the month of August. But the real zinger in the revisions for July, where 162,000 jobs created melted away to only 104,000. This may reflect the disposable nature of a very large and growing part-time job base. Of the jobs created year-to-date, as many as 97% of them have been part-time, helping employers evade the burdensome costs associated with Obamacare. This piece of news saw the precious metals reverse previous setbacks, while stocks stabilized.
How do we protect ourselves ?
Avoid interest rate sensitive stocks: financials, insurance companies, REITs, property developers and construction companies. Focus on consumer related issues that pay dividends. Oil companies should continue to perform. The government just raised the gasoline price by 20 sen a liter and is putting some major infrastructure projects on hold. This will strengthen the balance sheet and strengthen the RM. If the GST tax is introduced in the October budget expect a possible rerating by Fitch and S & P. which is positive for the economy and stock market. It is important to not get caught up in all the negativity, doom and gloom and pessimism. Follow the smart money and follow where they are investing.
I read in Money Week magazine that the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world- Norway- has been increasing their exposure to Asian stock markets including China, Singapore, reducing their developed market holdings, and reducing their bond holdings. Make sure you hold some gold/ silver as an insurance policy - perhaps 10 % of your assets -and a protection against excessive government currency debasement.
Attached is a powerful slide "Incrementum ChartBook" - Gold Bull and Debt Bear presentation which makes this point.
Invest well and grow your wealth - Bill ( 7 Sept 2013)
Dear Investors,
We shared our market outlook with particular focus on the background and how this might effect our local market. Background issues include interest rates, currencies, China and Asian growth, QE in the US and and QE in most developed markets.
Interest rates are going up world wide as evidenced by rising yields in US Treasury bonds, UK Gilts, Australian and European bonds, Japanese bonds and the local MGS.
This is the result of world wide money printing by all the central banks. Investors are demanding higher yields for the risk of holding government bonds. The threat by the Bernenk to stop QE is causing increased stock market volatility, panic in many emerging stock markets/ currencies and slowing growth.
Should the US Fed remove QE stimulus expect , massive stock market drops and a US housing market collapse. It is like taking away heroin from a drug addict. There is a mid term election in the US in 2014. Politicians in order to keep their jobs will put pressure on the authorities to keep the stimulus game going. On Friday, the US labor dept released the monthly employment report. It will give the Bernenk cover to taper less. This report was horrible and should give the authorities an excuse to delay or minimize tapering.
Here are comments from David McAlvany on the report.
On Friday, a dismal US jobs report was released: 169,000 non-farm jobs were created versus 180,000 expected. The labor participation rate fell to a 35-year low of 63.2%, which allowed for a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate to 7.3% for the month of August. But the real zinger in the revisions for July, where 162,000 jobs created melted away to only 104,000. This may reflect the disposable nature of a very large and growing part-time job base. Of the jobs created year-to-date, as many as 97% of them have been part-time, helping employers evade the burdensome costs associated with Obamacare. This piece of news saw the precious metals reverse previous setbacks, while stocks stabilized.
How do we protect ourselves ?
Avoid interest rate sensitive stocks: financials, insurance companies, REITs, property developers and construction companies. Focus on consumer related issues that pay dividends. Oil companies should continue to perform. The government just raised the gasoline price by 20 sen a liter and is putting some major infrastructure projects on hold. This will strengthen the balance sheet and strengthen the RM. If the GST tax is introduced in the October budget expect a possible rerating by Fitch and S & P. which is positive for the economy and stock market. It is important to not get caught up in all the negativity, doom and gloom and pessimism. Follow the smart money and follow where they are investing.
I read in Money Week magazine that the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world- Norway- has been increasing their exposure to Asian stock markets including China, Singapore, reducing their developed market holdings, and reducing their bond holdings. Make sure you hold some gold/ silver as an insurance policy - perhaps 10 % of your assets -and a protection against excessive government currency debasement.
Attached is a powerful slide "Incrementum ChartBook" - Gold Bull and Debt Bear presentation which makes this point.
Invest well and grow your wealth - Bill ( 7 Sept 2013)
Fund Manager Speaks (24 Aug 2013)
Dear Investors,
Since Feb 2013, emerging markets have been in a downtrend. In late June the Bernenk announced that he would taper QE. This led to a 5 week liquidation break in most emerging stock markets. Notice the 5 dark candles ending in an wide range candle on ultra high volume and then a white candle reversal. News has been ultra bearish. Emerging country currencies have suffered. The EEM, an emerging country fund ETF traded on the NYSE reflects these events.
The EEM has now started to form a 9 week accumulation bottom as panic is subsiding. Notice last weeks price bar. Lower prices were rejected Expect the 4 week balance area just above to be challenged next week. Mohammed El-Erian the CEO of Pimco, the world's largest bond fund with over 1 trillion USD under management commented on CNBC last week- Most Asian countries including Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore have strong reserves, have cushions, such as flexible exchange rates, better policies, high savings rates and he feels that EM currencies are bottoming out.
China data is becoming positive, PMI over 51 %, electricity usage now up 8 % year on year . China slowdown has been a major headwind to Asian markets but this is changing and will benefit our Malaysian/ Singapore investments. Carry trades are slowly being placed again and this will support Asian currencies. Some of you have called me as you are concerned about the weakness in the KLSE. If you focus on well managed solid companies that offer value you should not be overly concerned. This is not 1998 or 2008.
Gold is getting a bid and is challenging the USD 1400. Just as the whole world was bearish gold at the 1180 lows projecting prices to test 900 or 1000, gold is moving ahead. Expect the same for emerging stock markets. Doom and gloom, fear, negative reports have created panic and panic is an opportunity for the informed and cool headed investor who takes the time to study the facts.
Invest well and grow your wealth by Bill Wermine - Source report as at 24 Aug 2013
Since Feb 2013, emerging markets have been in a downtrend. In late June the Bernenk announced that he would taper QE. This led to a 5 week liquidation break in most emerging stock markets. Notice the 5 dark candles ending in an wide range candle on ultra high volume and then a white candle reversal. News has been ultra bearish. Emerging country currencies have suffered. The EEM, an emerging country fund ETF traded on the NYSE reflects these events.
The EEM has now started to form a 9 week accumulation bottom as panic is subsiding. Notice last weeks price bar. Lower prices were rejected Expect the 4 week balance area just above to be challenged next week. Mohammed El-Erian the CEO of Pimco, the world's largest bond fund with over 1 trillion USD under management commented on CNBC last week- Most Asian countries including Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore have strong reserves, have cushions, such as flexible exchange rates, better policies, high savings rates and he feels that EM currencies are bottoming out.
China data is becoming positive, PMI over 51 %, electricity usage now up 8 % year on year . China slowdown has been a major headwind to Asian markets but this is changing and will benefit our Malaysian/ Singapore investments. Carry trades are slowly being placed again and this will support Asian currencies. Some of you have called me as you are concerned about the weakness in the KLSE. If you focus on well managed solid companies that offer value you should not be overly concerned. This is not 1998 or 2008.
Gold is getting a bid and is challenging the USD 1400. Just as the whole world was bearish gold at the 1180 lows projecting prices to test 900 or 1000, gold is moving ahead. Expect the same for emerging stock markets. Doom and gloom, fear, negative reports have created panic and panic is an opportunity for the informed and cool headed investor who takes the time to study the facts.
Invest well and grow your wealth by Bill Wermine - Source report as at 24 Aug 2013
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